Former President Trump’s conviction in his New York trial might shake up the 2024 presidential election, says Dr. Allan Lichtman, a historian at American University.
Lichtman has a strong track record of predicting the outcomes of presidential elections, correctly forecasting nine of the last ten.
He said that it’s too early to tell how Trump’s conviction will impact the election. “We’re not going to know much until the sentencing hearing on July 11, right before the Republican convention,” Lichtman said.
Lichtman suggested that Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts for falsifying business records hasn’t shaken his loyal base. However, it’s uncertain how moderate and swing voters will react to having a convicted criminal on the ballot.
“We don’t know how this might affect moderate and swing independent voters. So really, we have got to look over time and not rely on instant, unreliable punditry,” he said.
Lichtman has a system called “Keys to the White House,” which he developed with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.
This system, which has helped him predict elections since 1984, is based on 13 true or false questions. These questions focus on factors that indicate stability or change in political power.
When eight or more of these “keys” are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.
Lichtman used this method to predict Trump’s victory in 2016, despite most polls favoring Hillary Clinton. He also correctly predicted Obama’s re-election in 2012 and Biden’s win in 2020.
Lichtman believes polls and pundits often mislead the public, as they don’t use scientific methods to predict elections.
For the 2024 election, Lichtman hasn’t made a final prediction yet. He said a lot would need to go wrong for Biden to lose to Trump.
According to Lichtman, Biden has already lost two keys: the mandate key, because Democrats lost seats in the 2022 midterms, and the charisma key, because Biden lacks the personal appeal of leaders like Roosevelt or Kennedy.
To lose, Biden would need six keys to turn against him. Potential risks include third-party candidates gaining significant support, social unrest, and failures in foreign policy.
However, Lichtman notes that Biden currently holds two keys solidly.
Some Democratic strategists and pundits worry about Biden’s low approval ratings and suggest he might step down. Lichtman warns this would be a mistake, as replacing Biden would cost the Democrats two more keys, making it easier for them to lose the election.
Lichtman criticizes the “political industrial complex” – a cycle of pollsters, consultants, and pundits that creates drama and profits from elections without providing useful insights.
He believes campaigns should focus on clear, substantive visions for the country, as successful ones in the past have done.