Betting has become common in sports. For example, Major League Baseball has official gaming partners, and you can bet on everything from the next pitch to who will win the World Series. Some people enjoy this, while others don’t. But what about betting on disasters? Profiting from community pain? That’s a different story—and it should be condemned.
Polymarket, a platform for “prediction markets,” recently allowed people to bet on Southern California wildfires. Some of the questions included: How many acres will the Palisades wildfire burn? Will it reach Santa Monica? When will it be 50% contained? These bets allow people to gamble on tragedies while others suffer.
Nathaniel Fast, director of USC’s Neely Center for Ethical Leadership, said, “Most people don’t like the idea of making money from disasters.”
Polymarket works by predicting the likelihood of events and letting people bet on those outcomes. For example, they predicted an 86% chance that the Palisades fire would be 50% contained by January 19. Bettors could win money if their guess was correct. The platform adjusts its odds in real time based on people’s bets.
Polymarket defends itself, claiming it provides valuable real-time data similar to news coverage. But Fast argued that people aren’t logging into Polymarket to make life-saving decisions like evacuating. He also warned that turning disasters into games could harm society, making people more callous to suffering or even encouraging bad behavior to influence bets.
This isn’t the first time Polymarket has done this. In 2023, they allowed betting on whether the missing Titan submersible would be found. Two bettors, one who bet yes and one who bet no, both made thousands of dollars by playing the odds.
Polymarket says they don’t charge fees or make money from these bets. But enabling others to profit from tragedy is still wrong. Their statement expressing sympathy for fire victims feels hollow as long as they allow betting on disasters.
Betting on sports is one thing, but betting on human suffering crosses a line. Polymarket should remove wildfire bets. As a famous quote from 1954 asks: “Have you no sense of decency?”
