Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s 2024 presidential campaign didn’t gain as much momentum as some expected, despite his famous name and media attention. Now that he has suspended his campaign, he could still influence the election, especially in key battleground states.
Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser to former President Donald Trump, wrote a memo suggesting that Kennedy’s exit might help Trump. According to LaCivita, voters who supported Kennedy are likely to switch their support to Trump.
Among the seven crucial battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—Nevada is expected to see the most significant shift. LaCivita’s internal surveys show that 66% of Kennedy’s Nevada supporters are now likely to vote for Trump. Kennedy had 4% support in Nevada, where Trump lost by just 2.39% in the 2020 election.
In North Carolina, Kennedy voters, who make up 3% of the electorate, are also moving towards Trump. The surveys indicate that 58% of Kennedy supporters in North Carolina will vote for Trump, while 22% will support Vice President Kamala Harris, and 21% are undecided.
In Wisconsin, where Biden won by just 0.63% in 2020, Kennedy’s departure could also benefit Trump. Kennedy had 4% support here, and Trump is now expected to gain 55% of those voters. If Trump captures all undecided voters, it could give him a 2% increase in his vote share, which might have changed the result in 2020.
Arizona is another state where Trump stands to gain. With Kennedy’s exit, Trump is expected to get 53% of Kennedy’s support, while Harris would get 28%, and 19% of voters remain undecided. Biden won Arizona by only 0.3% in 2020.
In Pennsylvania and Georgia, where Biden won by narrow margins, Trump is also gaining ground. In Pennsylvania, Trump leads Harris 49% to 35%, and in Georgia, he leads 47% to 34%. Kennedy had 4% support in Pennsylvania and 3% in Georgia. Trump’s gains in these states could significantly impact the overall result.
Michigan is the only state where Kennedy voters are split more evenly between Trump and Harris, with Trump at 45% and Harris at 43%.
If Trump can win all seven of these states, he could reach 312 electoral votes. Although it’s not certain that all of Kennedy’s supporters will switch to Trump, their votes could make a big difference in the upcoming election.