Donald J. Trump is ahead of President Biden in five important states, showing strong support among registered voters in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Biden leads only in Wisconsin. Among likely voters, the race is closer, but Trump still leads in five states, with Biden slightly ahead in Michigan and only narrowly behind in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Biden won all these states in 2020, but if he wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin again, he could still be re-elected, assuming he wins the other states he won last time.
Impact of Minor-Party Candidates
The polls also looked at a possible race including minor-party candidates and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Kennedy got about 10% of the vote, drawing equally from both major parties. These results are similar to polls from last November, indicating that minor-party candidates are not significantly impacting Trump’s strong position.
Recent Events and Their Effects
Since then, the stock market has gone up 25%, Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan has started, and Biden’s campaign has spent a lot on ads in key states. However, none of these events seem to have helped Biden or hurt Trump. Voters are still worried about the cost of living, immigration, and the war in Gaza. They also want change, which aligns with Trump’s message.
Voter Sentiment
While Biden had a boost after his State of the Union speech in March, he is still behind in national and key state polls. Many voters are unhappy with the current state of the country and doubt Biden can make big improvements. Most voters want major changes in the political and economic systems. Only 13% of Biden’s supporters think he will bring major changes if re-elected, while even some who dislike Trump think he will shake things up, showing confidence in Trump’s ability to drive change.
Challenges for Biden
This dissatisfaction has hurt Biden’s support among young, Black, and Hispanic voters. These groups, usually strong Democratic supporters, want big changes, not just a return to normal. Few believe Biden will make even small positive changes for the country, giving Trump an edge among these demographics.
Trump and Biden Tied Among Young and Hispanic Voters
Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are basically tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters. In 2020, more than 60% of these groups voted for Mr. Biden. Now, Mr. Trump is also getting more than 20% of Black voters. This would be the highest support from Black voters for a Republican since 1964, highlighting Trump’s broadening appeal.
Shifting Voting Map
The polls show that Mr. Trump’s popularity with young and nonwhite voters has changed the usual voting map. He is now leading in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada—diverse states where Black and Hispanic voters helped Mr. Biden win in 2020. However, Mr. Biden is still close behind. He keeps most of his support from older and white voters. These voters are less likely to want big changes and more likely to care about democracy. Because of this, Mr. Biden is doing better in the Northern states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Economic Concerns
The economy and the cost of living are the top issues for about 25% of voters, hurting Mr. Biden’s chances. More than half of voters think the economy is “poor,” which is almost the same as it was in November. Even with lower inflation, no more rate hikes, and a better stock market, people are still unhappy. Nearly 40% of Mr. Trump’s supporters say the economy or cost of living is the most important issue. For example, Jennifer Wright, a nurse in Michigan, supported Mr. Trump before and thinks the election is about who can help her financially.
Voter Dissatisfaction
Many voters, like Jacob Sprague from Nevada, feel the Biden administration is wrong about the economy being good. He says he is paying more for taxes, groceries, housing, and fuel. He voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but won’t do so again, reflecting the widespread dissatisfaction.
Potential for Change
There are still six months until the election, so things could change if the economy improves. Early polls like these don’t always predict the final outcome. Mr. Trump’s support from young, Black, and Hispanic voters might not be stable. These voters often don’t follow politics closely and might change their minds as the election gets closer.
Roe v. Wade Impact
About 20% of voters blame Mr. Biden more than Mr. Trump for the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022. These voters might be the ones Mr. Biden’s campaign tries to win over as the election approaches, but Trump’s base remains solid.
Abortion is a Big Issue for Trump
Polls show that abortion is one of Trump’s biggest problems. About 64% of voters in key states think abortion should be legal most of the time. This includes 44% of Trump’s own supporters. The Biden campaign has been highlighting Trump’s support for the Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade. Right now, voters prefer Biden over Trump to handle abortion by 11 points, with 49% for Biden and 38% for Trump.
Voters Want Big Changes
A bigger challenge for Biden may be voters who are unhappy with the current system. These voters want major changes or believe that the political and economic systems should be completely changed. In the past, these voters might have supported Democrats, but Trump’s anti-establishment style has changed things. Seventy percent of voters believe Trump will bring big changes or tear down the system, while only 24% think Biden will do the same.
Personality
Even though many voters have concerns about Trump personally, 43% think he will make good changes for the country, compared to 35% who think his changes will be bad. Trump does well with voters who want the system torn down, leading by 32 points among this group, which makes up about 15% of registered voters. These voters are likely to have switched from supporting Biden.
Biden’s Supporters Want Minor Changes
Biden still has the support of most 2020 voters who believe only minor changes are needed. These voters are not necessarily asking for a more progressive agenda. In a recent poll, 11% of registered voters thought Biden was not progressive enough. While many liberal voters want big changes, few of them are leaving Biden. Biden’s losses are mainly among moderate and conservative voters who still think the system needs major changes or to be torn down. Trump wins just 2% of Biden’s very liberal 2020 voters who think major changes are needed, compared to 16% of those who are moderate or conservative.
Israel and Gaza Conflict
Biden faces challenges from his left regarding Israel’s war in Gaza. About 13% of voters who supported Biden in 2020 but do not plan to do so again said that his foreign policy or the war in Gaza was their top issue. Only 17% of these voters sympathize with Israel over the Palestinians. Gerard Willingham, a 30-year-old web administrator from Georgia, voted for Biden in 2020 but plans to vote for a third-party candidate because of Biden’s response to the Gaza conflict. He said, “It’s starting to reach into my moral conscience.”
Trump’s Legal Troubles
Trump’s trial in Manhattan for falsifying business records related to a hush-money payment to Stormy Daniels started when the polls began in late April. However, the trial does not seem to have hurt Trump’s political standing so far. Only 29% of voters in key states said they were paying “a lot” of attention to Trump’s legal issues, and 35% thought the trial would end in a conviction. This shows that Trump’s supporters remain loyal and undeterred by the legal proceedings.
Overall, Trump’s strong lead in key states, his appeal to a broader base, and the dissatisfaction with Biden’s performance position him well for the upcoming election.