2024 Election Outcome May Depend on Nevada Going Republican

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in almost every poll in Nevada, a state that hasn’t voted Republican in 20 years. Winning Nevada would give Trump six electoral votes in November, which could help him secure a second term.

Trump’s lead in Nevada is the largest among all battleground states, currently ahead by 6.2 points. Biden has only led in three polls there this entire election cycle, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages.

Political experts and pollsters told the Daily Caller News Foundation that Trump’s leads in Nevada are likely due to the state’s poor economic conditions and Hispanic voters shifting towards the Republican Party.

Nevada’s economy relies heavily on tourism and is still recovering from the pandemic shutdowns. The state has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country and some of the highest gas and grocery prices. Home prices in Nevada continue to rise after hitting a record in 2022.

A New York Times/Siena College survey released Monday found Trump 12 points ahead of Biden among registered voters in Nevada, with 13% undecided. Among Hispanic voters, 22% said the economy is their “main reason” for voting in November.

This demographic overwhelmingly trusts Trump to handle the economy over Biden, with 70% supporting Trump compared to 24% for Biden. In the 2020 election, CNN exit polls showed Biden won the Latino vote in Nevada by 26 points against Trump.

Other polls show Trump leading Biden by double digits on who voters trust more to handle immigration. DeGraffenreid also noted that the voter registration gap between Democrats and Republicans is closing.

Democrats currently have about 54,000 more registered voters than Republicans in Nevada, down from a 109,000-voter gap in November 2020. There has also been an increase in nonpartisan and third-party voter registrations.

Hillary Clinton beat Trump in the 2016 Nevada election by 47.9% to 45.5%, and Trump lost the state to Biden by less than 34,000 votes in the last election. Clinton led in the RCP average for most of the 2016 election, and Biden led Trump for the entire last election cycle.

Former Republican President George W. Bush was the last Republican to win Nevada, beating Democrat John Kerry by 50.5% to 47.9% in 2004. Iindependent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could hurt Trump in Nevada.

There are currently 877,000 registered Independent American Party, nonpartisan, and libertarian voters compared to 619,000 in November 2020. However, the RCP average suggests that Trump’s lead grows to 8.8 points in Nevada when Kennedy and other third-party candidates are included.

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