New Poll: Trump Edges Out Biden in Michigan

Former President Donald Trump narrowly leads President Biden in a new poll of Michigan voters, but the race is closer than it was two months ago.

The Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. survey published on Monday shows Trump with 49% support compared to Biden’s 47%, with 4% of voters still undecided.

When third-party candidates are included, the race tightens even more: Trump gets 46%, Biden 45%, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 5%, and both Green Party’s Jill Stein and independent Cornel West 1% each.

“Trump leads in the two-way race because he has secured more support from Republicans than Biden has from Democrats,” said Steve Mitchell, President of Mitchell Research.

“Trump gets 92% of the Republican vote, while Biden gets 89% of the Democratic vote. Trump is also attracting 9% of Democratic voters, compared to Biden’s 4% of Republicans. Among independents, Biden leads 49% to 43%.”

In the five-way race, Kennedy takes 4% of his support from Trump voters and just 1% from Biden voters.

A poll from March by the same organization showed Trump leading Biden 47% to 44% in a head-to-head matchup and 44% to 42% in a race with multiple candidates.

Biden won Michigan by 2.78 percentage points in 2020, while Trump won by 0.23 percentage points in 2016.

Both candidates are focusing on Michigan. Trump held a rally on May 1 about electric vehicles, immigration, and the economy.

Biden visited Michigan on May 19, also focusing on the economy. The top issue for Michigan voters is the economy (34%), followed by “threats to democracy” (21%) and immigration (17%).

Biden’s lower support among Democrats compared to Trump’s support among Republicans may be due to protests from Michigan’s Muslim and Arab American communities over Biden’s handling of the war in the Middle East.

Over 100,000 voters marked themselves as “uncommitted” in the state’s February 27 Democratic primary in protest.

The poll also shows Michigan Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin leading Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers in the US Senate race. Slotkin has 40% support, Rogers has 36%, 17% are undecided, and 7% favor another candidate.

The poll of 697 likely voters was conducted via text message on May 20-21 and has a margin of error of 3.71%.

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